FSM Forecast


Bullish Case: FSM's recent bullish price momentum, historically strong volatility surface, and rising silver prices support potential upside.


Bearish Case: FSM's historical underperformance, mixed term structure, and uncertain market conditions pose significant downside risks.


Potential Outcomes: Expected price stagnation (50%); modest uptrend (30%); sharp declines on negative news (20%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread targeting January 2025 expiration with a $5.50 strike. Favor 50-60 delta calls to capitalize on moderately bullish sentiment and low implied volatility.


July 21, 2024


Fortuna Silver Mines Forecast

FSM      Fortuna Silver Mines











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FSM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FSM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FSM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.39)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)





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