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GIS Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: GIS's pet food acquisition and steady dividend appeal suggest growth potential despite current headwinds.

Bearish Case: Legal challenges and declining consumer demand for packaged foods may result in continued stock pressure.

Potential Outcomes: 35% - GIS stabilizes marginal growth through acquisitions; 30% - Legal/regulatory issues depress stock; 20% - Market share gains in pet food boost price; 15% - Inflationary pressures hinder recovery

Trading Oracle: Leverage a bearish credit spread: sell GIS $60 calls, buy $62.50 calls, expiring in 30 days, with current implied volatility favoring shorting. This approach maximizes profit from further downside pressure, aligning with mean-reverting historical trends.

January 11, 2025

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