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GLD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong institutional buying and gold’s appeal as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions support potential gains. Implied volatility decline suggests growing investor confidence.

Bearish Case: A correction might be imminent due to overvaluation and flat historical returns. Increased market volatility and interest rate hikes could deter gold investments.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of GLD rising due to geopolitical tensions.
30% chance of price correction amid flat returns.
20% likelihood of rangebound trading due to stable conditions.
15% chance of a volatility-induced decline.

April 03, 2025

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