GLD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: High institutional buying and lower implied volatility point to a potential uptick. Gold's role as a hedge amidst geopolitical tensions supports a bullish outlook.




Bearish Case: Flat term structure and historical patterns suggest potential stagnation. Economic pressures and a lack of bullish momentum indicate downside risk.




Potential Outcomes: 25% chance price rises to $250, 35% chance remains flat around $243, 40% chance declines toward $235.




Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish credit spread: sell 01/31/2025 $244 calls, buy $250 calls. Low implied volatility supports this strategy with potential for profit leveraging premium decay. Positive edge and high risk-reward ratio.



December 27, 2024


SPDR Gold Shares Forecast

GLD        SPDR Gold Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GLD



KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (0.97)


IAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAG  Iamgold (0.96)


WPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPM  Wheaton Precious Metals (0.94)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (0.93)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GLD



ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.0)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.03)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GLD



XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.88)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (-0.89)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.93)









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