GLD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: GLD historically performs well with an upward bias (graph 3) and market conditions hint at upcoming rate cuts (source 10). The elevated AI forecast divergence supports an upside move (graph 1).


Bearish Case: A flat historical return profile with persistent market volatility suggests limited upside (graph 3). Market overestimates volatility compared to Helium forecast (graph 4), indicating possible undervalue (graph 2).


Potential Outcomes: 45% chance of price increasing due to potential market volatility underestimation and bullish AI signal. 35% chance of continued rangebound behavior. 20% chance of price drop from heightened speculative positions (source 12).


Trading Oracle: Trade Helium short volatility credit spreads: Sell the 09/20/24 $240.00 call (market IV: 16.3) and buy the $250.00 call (market IV: 17.0). Target near-term premiums benefiting from relatively overestimated market volatility (graphs 1 and 2). Positive edge with balanced risk. Outlook: +14% risk-adjusted returns in 60-120 days.


July 16, 2024


SPDR Gold Shares Forecast

GLD      SPDR Gold Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GLD



UGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UGL  ProShares Ultra Gold (0.99)


HMY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HMY  Harmony Gold Mining (0.97)


EGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EGO  Eldorado Gold (0.95)


NGD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGD  New Gold (0.94)


DB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DB  Deutsche (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GLD



NVS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVS  Novartis (-0.0)


WTRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WTRG  Essential Utilities (0.0)


ARI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARI  Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (-0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.01)


CPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPS  Cooper-Standard (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GLD



MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.88)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.88)


AEHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEHR  Aehr Test Systems (-0.89)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.89)





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