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AI GOVT Forecast

Bullish Case: Reduced market uncertainty suggests GOVT could benefit from increasing demand for safe-haven assets, bolstering prices amidst economic instability.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates significant market skepticism around future stability, which may lead to heightened selling pressure on GOVT assets.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Fed rate cut (30%);

2. Economic downturn (25%);

3. Inflation persistence (20%);

4. Geopolitical tensions escalate (15%);

5. Fiscal stimulus introduced (10%).

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance through a debit spread: buy GOVT 24.00C and sell 25.00C for October 2024. This leverages potential price recovery while mitigating volatility risk with favorable reward/risk dynamics.

September 20, 2024

BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond Forecast

GOVT BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Treasury Bond

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GOVT

MBB BTC iShares MBS (1.0)

BND Vanguard Total Bond Market (1.0)

TLH BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (0.99)

VGLT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.98)

BLV Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Bond (0.98)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GOVT

STLD Steel Dynamics (-0.0)

BKR Baker Hughes (-0.0)

FXP ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 50 (0.0)

JOBY Joby Aviation (0.0)

ULTA Ulta Beauty (-0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GOVT

CHAU Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (-0.82)

DRV Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.92)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.99)

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