HQY Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: HQY's recent acquisitions and consistent growth in HSAs increase revenue and profitability. The current mean-reversion trend and relatively high insider buying signal potential upside.


Bearish Case: Recent data breaches and macroeconomic uncertainties create downward pressure. HSA contribution limits and high volatility in HSA asset values present potential challenges.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued mean reversion leading to mild appreciation (45%).

2. Decline due to external macroeconomic shocks and data breach impacts (35%).

3. Sustained stagnation due to mixed signals (~20%).


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bullish debit spread by buying $85 strike calls and selling $90 strike calls expiring in 42 days. This strategy leverages HQY's recent financial results and mean-reverting behavior, ensuring a high reward-to-risk profile.


July 10, 2024


Healthequity Forecast

HQY      Healthequity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HQY



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HQY



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HQY



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.72)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)





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