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IBDS Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: IBDS's historical stability and mean reversion suggest resilience amid moderate economic recovery, potentially improving returns due to favorable conditions.



Bearish Case: Rising interest rates and economic uncertainties could pressure bond values, as indicated by negative short-term return likelihood and increased SPY volatility.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Stable Price (40%): Continued mean reversion supports stability.
  2. Moderate Decline (30%): Rising rates apply pressure.
  3. Slight Increase (20%): Economic recovery aids bonds.
  4. Sharp Decline (5%): Severe economic shock occurs.
  5. Sharp Increase (5%): Unexpected positive shifts surprise.


June 20, 2025


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