IBDS Forecast


Bullish Case: IBDS has shown stable price trends with a slight positive return. It benefits from the consistency in its returns and the potential for performance improvement as market conditions stabilize.


Bearish Case: Historical data shows an increased likelihood of negative returns over one-year holding periods. Continued economic uncertainties could exacerbate this trend, leading to potential losses for IBDS investors.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable Price (~30%): Continuation of current price trend considering historical stability.

2. Slight Increase (~25%): Improvement in economic conditions or favorable corporate yields.

3. Decline (~20%): Economic slowdown or increased interest rates exerting downward pressure.

4. Sharp Increase (~15%): Unexpected positive economic data or rates cut.

5. Sharp Decline (~10%): Severe economic shock.


Trading Oracle: Trade credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) with a mildly bearish stance. Focus on an 8-month time horizon to benefit from potential decline due to economic slowdown. Sell at-the-money call spreads to capitalize on stable yet slightly negative historical return trends.


June 28, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IBDS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.59)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.16)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.47)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IBDS



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.16)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.47)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.59)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IBDS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.59)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.16)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.21)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.47)





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