JACK Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: JACK's strategic expansions into new markets and promotional partnerships like the Deadpool collaboration could boost brand visibility and sales, supporting potential stock price appreciation.


Bearish Case: Persistent negative price trends, high reliance on California markets facing labor cost pressures, and lack of historical returns make downside risk significant.


Potential Outcomes: 60% chance market stagnation; 20% expansion immaterial; 10% upside from promotions; 10% adverse impacts from increased labor costs/expansion risks.


Trading Oracle: Short-term bearish strategy due to Jack's negative historical price action and flat options term structure. Implement a 35-day bearish credit spread by selling JACK $55 strike call options and buying $57.5 strike call options. High PoP, ~75%, balances risk and volatility.


July 14, 2024


Jack In The Box Forecast

JACK      Jack In The Box











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with JACK



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.83)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.7)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JACK



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.59)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.7)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.83)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JACK



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.83)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.7)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.59)





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