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KBH Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: KBH shows resilience amid falling mortgage rates, driving demand. Positive earnings momentum and strategic land acquisitions position it for growth, supported by historical price patterns that suggest potential upward movement.



Bearish Case: Persistent high mortgage rates and potential affordability issues threaten KBH's growth. Insiders' selling could signal confidence erosion, compounding market volatility concerns that challenge near-term performance.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40%: Continued demand recovery leading to rising prices.

2. 35%: Interest rate hikes causing downturns.

3. 20%: Market volatility leads to limited trading range.

4. 5%: Sudden negative events drastically impact performance.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread by selling 1 $80 call and buying 1 $85 call, capitalizing on the current volatility as it trends lower. This has a potential profit of 50% with favorable odds given market conditions, protecting against adverse movements while allowing for upside capture if the market stabilizes.


November 15, 2024


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Uncorrelated Assets

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AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (0.0)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.0)


NNOX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NNOX  Nano X Imaging (0.0)


BYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYD  Boyd Gaming (-0.0)


LUV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUV  Southwest Airlines (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KBH


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.85)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.86)


SAVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAVE  Spirit Airlines (-0.88)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.9)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)







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