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LEO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Institutional interest in LEO’s municipal bonds could stabilize prices and offer slight gains, especially if market conditions favor safe-haven assets.

Bearish Case: Persistent underperformance, operational losses, and high fees continue to weigh down LEO with a historical trend of negative returns.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Flat price action (45%): aligns with historical mean reversion.

2. Moderate rally (25%): positive institutional support.

3. Decline (30%): escalating operational challenges.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bear call credit spread around the $6.5 strike for 3 months. Low implied volatility suggests stability with high probability of flat price action. This captures theta decay while minimizing risk and capitalizing on LEO’s historical behavior.

January 10, 2025

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