LLY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong pipeline with recent FDA approvals and above-market implied volatility suggest continued growth. Robust social media sentiment enhances this outlook.




Bearish Case: High price-to-book ratio and recent price decline raise concerns of overvaluation, compounded by litigation and regulatory risks.




Potential Outcomes: 30% chance LLY stabilizes after recent drop; 40% for growth due to new drug success; 30% correction likelihood from valuation concerns.




Trading Oracle: Best play is a short volatility strategy, utilizing near-term LLY put credit spreads at the $700-$695 range. Large 75% odds of profit, low gamma risk, and favorable theta decay align for 60% annualized return potential.



January 15, 2025


Lilly(Eli) Forecast

LLY        Lilly(Eli)











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NG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NG  Novagold Resources (0.74)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LLY



CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.0)


LMND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LMND  Lemonade (0.0)


RIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIO  Rio Tinto (-0.01)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (0.01)


MIR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MIR  Mirion Technologies Inc. (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LLY



PBPB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBPB  Potbelly (-0.73)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.74)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (-0.74)


YELP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YELP  Yelp (-0.74)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.8)









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