LLY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: LLY shows strong momentum from successful FDA approvals and increased manufacturing capacity for its obesity drugs, particularly Zepbound, positioning it for significant revenue growth amidst rising demand.




Bearish Case: Despite strong product demand, LLY faces high P/B ratios and increasing competition in the obesity space, including regulatory scrutiny, which could lead to a stock price correction.




Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued success in obesity drug sales (40% chance);

2) Increased competition leading to price pressure (30% chance);

3) Regulatory setbacks hindering growth (30% chance).




Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread using LLY 12/20 $800/$850 call options, capitalizing on potential upside from positive earnings and IMV spikes as implied volatility settles, with strong historical returns supporting this strategy.



December 15, 2024


Lilly(Eli) Forecast

LLY        Lilly(Eli)











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