Bullish Case: LOGI at $100.33 sits near the peak of both Helium and market price densities (~0.29), with flat term structure, a +2.47% Helium forecast, and bullish risk 4% above bearish across tenors. Downside skew persists, so market IV on puts is rich vs Helium; if the ~$100 pivot holds while skew narrows, mean reversion toward $105+ remains the path of least resistance into the holiday-quarter product cycle.

Bearish Case: Put volume ran 18x call volume and the week saw a -5.2% slide from $105.82 — concentrated short-dated put demand (10/16 95P/90P heavily traded) signals someone paying up for near-term protection. A break below the $99–100 sixty-day pivot would invalidate the 9.4% ninety-day recovery and could accelerate toward $95, where both densities show only moderate mass below.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40% — Rangebound $95–$105 through Oct 16 expiry; densities concentrate mass at $100. Falsifiable: 10/16 close within band.
• 20% — Push to $105–$112 by Nov 20 (+2.47% forecast compounds; product/holiday demand). Falsifiable: close ≥$105 by 10/16.
• 22% — Break below $95 (put-flow continuation; market IV exceeds Helium on downside strikes). Falsifiable: close <$95 within 10 sessions of break.
• 12% — Vol spike: short-dated IV >60% with price within ±5% of $100 (headline/tail repricing; put IV already elevated at 33.7%+). Falsifiable: intraday IV >60%.
• 6% — Tail: <$80 by Mar 2027 (demand/supply shock; deep-put IV 50%+ priced). Falsifiable: close <$80.

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September 29, 2026