Bullish Case: Recent IT advancements could lower financial market costs, possibly benefitting Moody's [Coin Desk, Yahoo]. Moody's has just appointed a new General Counsel with extensive experience [ir.moodys.com]. The firm's shares have seen increased investment from FIL Ltd and ING Groep NV [beststocks.com, beststocks.com]. Bullish views on U.S. economic growth [Business Insider, youtube.com] could also benefit Moody's.


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Bearish Case: Moody's is watching several political and economic situations that could impact global financial health, including coups in Gabon and Niger, and economic challenges in China [Reuters, Haaretz, Yahoo, moneycontrol.com, BQ Prime]. Uncertainties around blockchain's regulation could pose risks [Yahoo]. Global sukuk issuances are expected to decline in 2023 [Arab News] which could potentially impact Moody's business.


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Takeaway: Moody's future is largely tied to broad economic conditions and advancements in financial technologies. While there are important growth opportunities, potential political, economic and regulatory challenges should not be overlooked.


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Potential Outcomes:

1) 60% - Moody's benefits from AI and DLT reducing financial market costs [Coin Desk, Yahoo].

2) 80% - Stable U.S. economic growth aids Moody's [Business Insider, youtube.com, Yahoo],

3) 30% - Moody's is negatively affected by political and economic uncertainties in Gabon, Niger, and China [Reuters, Haaretz, Yahoo, moneycontrol.com, BQ Prime]

4) 70% - Regulation challenges with blockchain impact Moody's [Yahoo]

5) 40% - Declining global sukuk issuances adversely affect Moody's business [Arab News]. Probabilities are estimated based on the current financial market conditions, potential of these technologies, and political and economic situations given in the cited articles.


September 12, 2023


Moody's Forecast

[MCO]  Moody's
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING



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