MELI Forecast


Bullish Case: MELI's dominance in LATAM e-commerce and fintech, coupled with implied volatility trends, indicates potential upside. Its forecasted earnings growth and recent partnerships offer substantial long-term profit potential. History shows robust returns, enhancing bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Potential risks include market saturation, heightened competition, and geopolitical instability impacting LATAM markets. Elevated implied volatility and a flat term structure suggest extended price uncertainty. Historical volatility raises concerns about short-term declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth boosted by earnings, driving price up (60%).

2. Price remains stable due to market uncertainty (30%).

3. Increased competition and economic headwinds cause decline (10%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads with medium-term expiries, targeting near-the-money calls expiring in ~60 days. This strategy leverages expected earnings growth and bullish sentiment while managing volatility risk. Aim for a high reward/risk ratio with potential returns on the upside.


July 11, 2024


MercadoLibre Forecast

MELI      MercadoLibre











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PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (0.85)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MELI



IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.0)


INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (0.0)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (0.0)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (-0.0)


INOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INOD  Innodata (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MELI



VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.78)


YUMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YUMC  Yum China (-0.78)


DQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DQ  Daqo New Energy (-0.81)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.82)


RGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGR  Sturm, Ruger & Co. (-0.85)





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