MELI Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MELI's solid LATAM foothold and expanding fintech drive sustained revenue growth, evident from strong options call volume and rising price trend.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and mean-reverting history suggest near-term price corrections amidst economic headwinds and internal operational risks.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth (60%),

2. Price correction due to volatility (30%),

3. Economic setbacks causing decline (10%).




Trading Oracle: Focus on debit spreads; buy $2100 call, sell $2200 call, expiring in ~3 months. Capture bullish momentum amid higher call volumes and anticipated upside.



February 21, 2025


MercadoLibre Forecast

MELI        MercadoLibre











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MELI



SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (0.91)


XLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLP  Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (0.88)


WPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPM  Wheaton Precious Metals (0.87)


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (0.86)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MELI



NWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NWL  Newell Brands (0.01)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (-0.01)


FSLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLR  First Solar (0.01)


FMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FMC  FMC (-0.02)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MELI



CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (-0.77)


ETSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETSY  Etsy (-0.79)


SYNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYNA  Synaptics (-0.8)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.83)


INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (-0.83)









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