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MSCI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Expansion into ESG and climate services and robust investor interest could fuel MSCI's growth, supported by stable implied volatilities and historical returns.

Bearish Case: Overvaluation concerns and potential rate hikes may compress multiples, given the higher put volume indicating persistent market caution and elevated volatility.

Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of moderate growth driven by ESG initiatives; 30% potential for valuation correction due to high interest rates; 10% risk of macroeconomic shocks impacting indices.

Trading Oracle: Consider bullish debit spreads with strikes around $600-$620 expiring March 2025. Implied volatility stability supports this strategy. Diversify with limited downside risk through offsetting put positions. Monitor volatility trends closely.

January 08, 2025

MSCI Forecast

MSCI MSCI

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MSCI

SOFI SoFi (0.87)

DBX Dropbox (0.87)

VSCO Victoria's Secret (0.87)

NOW ServiceNow (0.87)

TSAT Telesat Corp (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MSCI

LCID Lucid (0.0)

SGRY Surgery (0.0)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.01)

MFA MFA Financial (-0.01)

ATI Allegheny (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSCI

RILY B. Riley Financial (-0.79)

OXY Occidental Petroleum (-0.81)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.84)

VAL Valaris (-0.84)

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (-0.87)

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