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MSCI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MSCI's expansion into ESG and climate analytics continues to attract investor confidence, bolstered by consistent earnings growth and a strategic market position. Increasing call option volumes signal renewed bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: MSCI faces potential downside from persistent high interest rates and valuation concerns. Elevated implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, and regulatory challenges in ESG ratings may impact growth.

Potential Outcomes: Continued ESG growth (60%)
Valuation correction due to high rates (30%)
Regulatory impact on ESG sector (10%)

Trading Oracle: Leverage bullish debit spreads, focusing on strikes around $610-$630 expiring by June. Capitalize on call volume optimism and moderate risk by offsetting with put options. Expect gradual ESG growth and rebound in MSCI performance over 3-6 months.

February 11, 2025

MSCI Forecast

MSCI MSCI

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MSCI

NOW ServiceNow (0.87)

DBX Dropbox (0.87)

TSAT Telesat Corp (0.87)

SOFI SoFi (0.87)

VSCO Victoria's Secret (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MSCI

LCID Lucid (0.0)

FREY FREYR Battery (-0.01)

HBM Hudbay Minerals (-0.01)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.01)

FLNC Fluence Energy (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MSCI

OXY Occidental Petroleum (-0.81)

HRTX Heron Therapeutics (-0.82)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.84)

VAL Valaris (-0.84)

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (-0.87)

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