NINE Forecast


Bullish Case: NINE is currently trading at a significant discount to its historical highs. A possible reversion to mean and positive market catalysts could lead to substantial gains, amplified by the high implied volatility.


Bearish Case: The historical return surface shows a high likelihood of negative to flat returns in short to mid-term holding periods, coupled with current geopolitical instability and decreasing demand in the energy sector may push prices lower.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price recovery due to positive market sentiment or mean reversion: 35%.

2. Continued price decline from bearish market sentiment or external factors: 45%.

3. Volatility spike causing price swings: 20%. (Predictions based on historical patterns and current market conditions).


Trading Oracle: A short-term credit spread focusing on high implied volatility makes sense. Sell OTM puts and buy deeper OTM puts to capture premium while controlling risk. Bullish stance: execute within the next 1-2 months to leverage any potential price recovery. This strategy offers a high reward-to-risk ratio and a good probability of profit amidst current market conditions.


July 21, 2024


Nine Energy Service Forecast

NINE      Nine Energy Service











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NINE



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.65)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.08)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NINE



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.08)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.64)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.65)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NINE



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.65)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.08)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.64)





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