NVAX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: With the upcoming FDA approval for the KP.2-targeted vaccine and rising COVID cases, NVAX’s price could surge as demand for its vaccines increases. High implied volatility indicates market optimism.


Bearish Case: The high level of implied volatility suggests that investors expect significant price swings, potentially due to competition and recent setbacks. Decreased revenue from past vaccine failures could further negatively impact NVAX.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Successful FDA approval for JN.1 vaccine (55%);

2) Market acceptance falters, leading to stagnated sales (30%);

3) Unexpected competition reduces market share significantly (15%).


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance using short-term call debit spreads, targeting strike prices at $18-$20 with expirations in late August. This utilizes high implied volatility for high reward-to-risk while capturing upcoming events favorably.


July 25, 2024










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