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NVAX Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Novavax's unique protein-based vaccines hold potential amidst mRNA vaccine hesitancy, with recent approvals and high implied volatility suggesting an opportunity for market expansion and revenue growth.

Bearish Case: Regulatory delays, high competition, and past operational struggles may hinder any price recovery. The persistent high volatility indicates uncertainty and market skepticism remain strong.

Potential Outcomes: 40%: Successful vaccine rollout enhances revenue streams.
35%: Regulatory hurdles continue, stalling progress.
25%: Competitive pressures further impede growth.

April 13, 2025

Novavax Forecast

NVAX Novavax

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NVAX

VTRS Viatris (-0.0)

HIMX Himax (-0.02)

ECL Ecolab (0.03)

GT Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.03)

PSMT Pricesmart (-0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NVAX

COF Capital One Financial (-0.56)

FAST Fastenal (-0.56)

V Visa (-0.58)

HUBS HubSpot (-0.6)

FRSH Freshworks (-0.69)

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