Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Positive FDA reclassification of vaccine holds could restore confidence, potentially driving prices up as market acceptance grows again amidst ongoing COVID-19 concerns.

Bearish Case: Regulatory hurdles could continue to impact Novavax, with the recent hold on vaccine developments likely leading to price decline and sustained investor uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40% chance of successful FDA clarity following reclassification, boosting stock.
• 35% chance of persistent regulatory delays, keeping prices stagnant.
• 25% chance of unforeseen events affecting stock in unexpected ways.

Trading Oracle: Implement a long call debit spread (e.g., buy the $10 call, sell the $13 call) targeting mid-January expiry to capture expected volatility spikes. Given current IV dynamics, this strategy exploits bullish sentiments while hedging against potential bearish reversals. This approach maximizes profit potential with manageable risk exposure.

December 07, 2024