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NVAX Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Novavax's unique protein-based vaccines hold potential amidst mRNA vaccine hesitancy, with recent approvals and high implied volatility suggesting an opportunity for market expansion and revenue growth.

Bearish Case: Regulatory delays, high competition, and past operational struggles may hinder any price recovery. The persistent high volatility indicates uncertainty and market skepticism remain strong.

Potential Outcomes: 40%: Successful vaccine rollout enhances revenue streams.
35%: Regulatory hurdles continue, stalling progress.
25%: Competitive pressures further impede growth.

April 13, 2025

Novavax Forecast

NVAX Novavax

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.73)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NVAX

IBN ICICI (-0.0)

VTRS Viatris (-0.0)

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IMO Imperial Oil (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NVAX

ORI Old Republic International (-0.62)

BBAR BBVA Argentina (-0.66)

MP MP Materials (-0.68)

WMG Warner Music (-0.68)

RELY Remitly (-0.72)

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