OB Forecast


Bullish Case: With OB trading recently at a positive trajectory and the Helium model suggesting an upward theoretical value, bullish sentiment is supported. Additionally, upcoming product launches/features expected in Q3 2024 could substantially increase demand and market presence.[Metaculus][USA Today]


Bearish Case: OB's historical mean reversion and relatively high implied volatility risk suggest potential price pullbacks. Weak correlation (-0.1) between AI price forecast and realized price underscores uncertainty. Macroeconomic headwinds like rising healthcare costs may dampen consumer sentiment.[Metaculus][USA Today][New York Times]


Potential Outcomes: Price continues slight upward trend: 45%. Market correction or pullback: 30%. Significant price increase due to major announcement: 15%. Stagnant price: 10%.[Metaculus][USA Today]


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June 25, 2024


Outbrain Forecast

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OB



AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (0.85)


DIOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIOD  Diodes (0.84)


HAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAS  Hasbro (0.83)


MLCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLCO  Melco Resorts & Entertainment (0.82)


GOOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOS  Canada Goose Holdings Inc (Subord Vot Shs) (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OB



BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (0.0)


URTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URTY  ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 (0.0)


BROS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BROS  Dutch Bros (-0.0)


ZBH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZBH  Zimmer Biomet (0.0)


TRMB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRMB  Trimble (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OB



AGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGO  Assured Guaranty (-0.7)


CNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNC  Centene (-0.71)


CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBOE  Cboe Global Markets (-0.76)


SUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUN  Sunoco (-0.77)


CAH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAH  Cardinal Health (-0.85)





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