ORC Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent insider buying suggests management confidence; if the Fed cuts rates, the spread and subsequently ORC's profitability may improve [Helium].


Bearish Case: Persistently declining book value, low trading volumes, and potential future dividend cuts continue to pressure ORC, risking further declines [Helium].


Potential Outcomes: Further book value losses (60%), oversold conditions spark rebound (30%), forced dividend cut (10%). Analysis based on historical trends and current fundamentals [Helium][Helium].


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bearish credit spread using ORC 10/18/2024 $7.50 puts. The low implied volatility aligns with expected price decline on recession risks and dividend cuts risk. Optimal time frame is around 4 months.


June 25, 2024


Orchid Island Forecast

ORC      Orchid Island











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ORC



IVR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVR  Invesco Mortgage (0.91)


KMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KMX  Carmax (0.87)


AGNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGNC  AGNC Investment (0.86)


NEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEP  NextEra Energy (0.83)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   W  Wayfair (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ORC



MTDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTDR  Matador Resources (0.0)


PFSI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PFSI  PennyMac Financial Services (0.0)


TEVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEVA  Teva- Pharmaceutical Industries (0.0)


TEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEAM  Atlassian (0.0)


IVW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVW  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P 500 Growth (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ORC



TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.53)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.59)


IMVT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMVT  Immunovant (-0.62)


HIBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIBS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X Shares (-0.65)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.78)





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