Bullish Case: Positive price action recently with 26% gain over past month. Insider buying signals confidence. Company narrowed Q3 losses amid volatility.


Bearish Case: Dividend cut 25%. Significant multi-year drawdowns of 68-78%. Price forecast negative and historically correlated.


Takeaway: After large dividend cut and price decline, ORC stabilizing but remains high risk with binary potential outcomes dependent on housing market direction.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 50% chance dividend stabilized and share price rebounds towards $10 (+33%) if housing data improves.

2) 30% chance further dividend cuts and price stagnation around $7.50 if volatility persists.

3) 20% chance substantial price drawdown towards $5 (-33%) if recession deepens.


November 29, 2023


Orchid Island Forecast

[ORC]  Orchid Island
Price Forecast: BEARISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)



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