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REIT Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: The REIT historical return surface suggests moderate positive returns likely over longer holding periods. With potential rate cuts, investor appeal may grow, boosting recovery potential.



Bearish Case: REIT recent flat price action and historical return data suggest possible downside risks. Economic uncertainty and rising vacancy rates could depress valuations further.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate positive returns from rate cuts (60%)

2. Economic challenges increase vacancies, pressuring values (30%)

3. Stable but low growth (10%).



Trading Oracle: Use Helium debit spreads on REIT, opting for long calls with 6-12 month expiry. This is a bullish play leveraging potential rate cuts and favorable volatility, targeting a high reward:risk.


February 20, 2025


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