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REIT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Despite mixed sentiments, REIT is poised for recovery due to potential rate cuts and an improving economic landscape. Historical data indicates a likelihood of moderate positive returns over longer holding periods.

Bearish Case: Rising interest rates and economic uncertainty could adversely impact REIT valuations. The historical return surface shows significant downside risk, with higher likelihood of negative returns.

Potential Outcomes: Rate cuts boosting REIT demand (50% chance)
Economic slowdown pressuring values (30%)
Stable interest rates supporting moderate growth (20%)

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread on REIT, focusing on options with expiration in 6-12 months. This leverages potential rate cuts and market stabilization. Utilize long calls near the money for a high reward-to-risk profile, capturing potential upside.

January 23, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with REIT

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.99)

ICF BTC iShares Cohen & Steers REIT (0.98)

ICE Intercontinental Exchange (0.93)

SHW Sherwin-Williams (0.91)

EPR EPR Properties (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to REIT

IAC IAC InterActiveCorp. (0.0)

TMDX Transmedics (-0.0)

MCK Mckesson (0.01)

GIS General Mills (0.02)

GEL Genesis Energy (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against REIT

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.8)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.82)

OXY Occidental Petroleum (-0.83)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.86)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.