OWNS Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Supportive affordable housing policies could drive demand for OWNS, leading to potential positive returns over longer holding periods (1 year or more).




Bearish Case: Persistent economic uncertainty and historical trends suggest a continued likelihood of flat or negative returns, challenging any significant growth in OWNS.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued flat or slight negative performance (50%).

2. Affordable housing policy boosts (30%).

3. Economic downturn impacts (20%).




Trading Oracle: Adopt a credit spread (Short Volatility) strategy. Sell OTM call spreads with 1-2 month expiration, exploiting OWNS's historical low volatility for high probability of profit. Target a neutral to bearish outlook due to flat trading tendencies.



January 11, 2025


Impact Shares Trust I - Impact Shares Affordable Housing MBS Forecast

OWNS        Impact Shares Trust I - Impact Shares Affordable Housing MBS











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OWNS



VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.84)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.8)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (0.8)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.79)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OWNS



DE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DE  Deere (-0.0)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.0)


ON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ON  ON Semiconductor (-0.0)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (0.01)


SRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRPT  Sarepta Therapeutics (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OWNS



RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RILY  B. Riley Financial (-0.63)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.64)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.67)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.76)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.93)









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