PAA Forecast


Bullish Case: The current bullish sentiment with significant call option volume and a forward-looking AI forecast of +0.51% indicate potential upside. Historically, short-term returns appear mean-reverting with opportunities for quick gains.


Bearish Case: The term structure shows backwardation, coupled with historically high volatility and broader industry headwinds, signaling potential short-term downside risks. Mean reversion suggests recent gains might not be sustained.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive Q2 earnings continuation drives price up (40%).

2. Market corrects overbought conditions causing a pullback (30%).

3. Continued neutral movement while adjusting to market dynamics (30%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads targeting Nov 2024 expiry around $19.00 C, exploiting short-term gains and backwardation. The current volatility surface implies beneficial strike prices in this range. High reward-to-risk with positive probability-of-profit aligning with near-term AI forecasts.


July 21, 2024


Plains All American Pipeline Forecast

PAA      Plains All American Pipeline











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PAA



PAGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGP  Plains GP (0.97)


AMLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMLP  ALPS Alerian MLP (0.93)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (0.9)


PGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGR  Progressive (0.89)


MPLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPLX  MPLX (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PAA



BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (-0.0)


VIPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIPS  Vipshop (-0.0)


NVO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVO  Novo Nordisk (0.0)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.0)


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PAA



BMBL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMBL  Bumble (-0.87)


LEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEG  Leggett & Platt (-0.88)


APPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPS  Digital Turbine (-0.88)


PACB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PACB  Pacific Biosciences of California (-0.89)


IRBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRBT  Irobot (-0.89)





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