Bullish Case: Helium's density spikes sharply at $18–19 (0.23/0.26) just above the $17.79 spot, and market-implied density also peaks at $18 with meaningful mass at $19–21—both distributions sit above spot. Daily RSI near 23 and six straight weekly losses mirror past capitulation setups that historically averaged ~9.4% gains within 10 sessions; backwardation and 39–46% IV on Mar-2027 calls keep a supply-squeeze option alive.

Bearish Case: PALL has lost 25% in 60 days and 86% year-over-year amid unresolved EV substitution; Helium retains a fat lower tail (density 0.0182 at $17, deep-OTM Nov puts at 90–190% IV signal crash hedging). Volume is at the 0th percentile and call/put skew is nearly neutral—no conviction bid. A break below $17 opens $14–15, and SPY's downside IV smile warns of macro vol shocks.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% Oversold bounce to $19–21 by Dec 18 (Helium mode $18–20; falsified by a close below $17).
2. 25% Continued grind $17–19 as backwardation and thin volume persist.
3. 20% Breakdown to $15–16 on EV/USD pressure (put IV 45%+ at Mar-2027 16–17P supports).
4. 10% Squeeze to $22–24 on Russian export curbs/OEM restock (Mar-2027 22C volume 391 confirms tail interest).
5. 5% Gap below $14 if SPY downside vol spikes (Nov 14P IV 91%).

October 31, 2026