Bullish Case: Known: PALL at ~$23 and a mean-reverting regime; options show call volume > put volume and the term structure is in backwardation. Inferred from the PALL return surface, the densest likelihood bands cluster around modest moves (about -5% to +10%) rather than sustained trends. The SPY implied-volatility surface looks moderately priced (mostly ~10-20 IV), so a broad macro shock may be less dominant than idiosyncratic palladium dynamics.

Bearish Case: Inferred: even though the return surface is densest near small moves, non-trivial probability remains in deeper drawdowns; PALL has already overshot earlier “range” expectations. Very high near-dated put IV plus backwardation doesn’t remove downside tail risk. My prior Apr/May upside squeeze thesis (145-150) failed; Helium AI’s -1.48% bearish view and -0.3 forecast/realized correlation add uncertainty, especially if $22 breaks.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% $25–27 (+8–17%) by Sep18 if PALL holds >=22; invalid if closes <21.
2. 25% -2%..+6% grind Jul17–Sep18; calibration: Apr/May squeeze missed -> oracle lens: range spreads.
3. 20% $19–20 (-13%..-18%) if break <21 and IV widens with rising SPY IV.
4. 12% $29–31 (+25%..+35%) only with new supply/OEM evidence + persistent call-skew.
5. 8% $16–17 (-30%) if SPY IV spikes >30 and PALL loses $20.

July 09, 2026