Bullish Case: PCAR's -12.3% one-month drawdown to $113.90 has overshot its historical mean-reversion tendency; Helium's density concentrates mass at $115 with upside spread toward $120-130, and Helium's term structure shows near-dated vol at only 12.8% versus the market's 22.7% - implying the market overprices near-term downside. Contango plus 17% more bullish than bearish risk across tenors supports drift back toward $118-122.

Bearish Case: Institutional bearish rolls into October, puts trading 58% heavier than calls, and a left-tail-heavy market density (secondary mass near $95-100) signal continued distribution. The failed $128-133 August thesis and steepest drawdown since the spring suggest freight/margin deterioration or macro risk-off could extend losses toward $105 before stabilization.

Potential Outcomes: Scenarios (weights):

1) 40% Reversion rally $118-124 by Dec (Helium tilt, contango vol decay; falsified below $112).

2) 30% Range $110-117 chop with IV compression into Jan expiry.

3) 20% Continued slide to $105-109 on put-driven rolls and freight weakness.

4) 10% Tail: <$102 if SPY downside vol (35+ IV) transmits. Key dates: Oct 16/Nov 20 expiries, Q3 earnings late Oct.

September 23, 2026