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AI PCY Forecast

Bullish Case: Emerging markets may stabilize due to recovering economic conditions, heightened foreign investment, and a favorable yield environment driving demand for PCY, suggesting potential price gains.

Bearish Case: Instability stemming from geopolitical tensions, potential interest rate hikes, and institutional selling pressures could undermine demand for emerging market bonds, leading to further declines in PCY.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery (30%),

2. Geopolitical stability (25%),

3. Increased institutional investment (20%),

4. Interest rate hikes (25%). These probabilities reflect historical trends and current economic indicators.

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August 20, 2024

Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Forecast

PCY Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCY

RKT Rocket Companies (0.91)

HYD VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck High Yield Muni (0.89)

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.88)

VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 Index (0.87)

UWM ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCY

SNY Sanofi (0.0)

BNO United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (-0.0)

LNG Cheniere Energy (0.0)

MTDR Matador Resources (0.01)

QS QuantumScape (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCY

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)

SH ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.81)

SRTY ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.85)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.86)

DRV Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.9)

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