PCY Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Emerging markets stabilize, boosting PCY due to increased yields and investor confidence. Rising foreign investment signals potential growth.




Bearish Case: High geopolitical risk and potential interest rate hikes may deter investments, causing PCY to decline further. Mean-reverting trends suggest limited upside.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Economic stabilization and bond demand boost PCY (30%).
  2. Interest rate hikes depress valuations (20%).
  3. Geopolitical tensions rise, affecting markets (25%).
  4. Institutional pressures reduce holdings (25%).



March 21, 2025


Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Forecast

PCY        Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCY



IGLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGLB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond (0.89)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.76)


VXUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXUS  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total International Stock (0.68)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.64)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCY



ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (-0.0)


MNST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNST  Monster Beverage (0.0)


POWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   POWL  Powell Industries (-0.0)


RIVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIVN  Rivian Automotive (0.0)


IVW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVW  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P 500 Growth (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCY



ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.33)


GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (-0.36)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.37)


RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (-0.41)


EUO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EUO  ProShares UltraShort Euro (-0.52)









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