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PCY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Emerging markets stabilize, boosting PCY due to increased yields and investor confidence. Rising foreign investment signals potential growth.



Bearish Case: High geopolitical risk and potential interest rate hikes may deter investments, causing PCY to decline further. Mean-reverting trends suggest limited upside.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Economic stabilization and bond demand boost PCY (30%).
  2. Interest rate hikes depress valuations (20%).
  3. Geopolitical tensions rise, affecting markets (25%).
  4. Institutional pressures reduce holdings (25%).


March 21, 2025


Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Forecast

PCY        Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCY


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.76)


VGIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGIT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury (0.75)


VXUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXUS  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total International Stock (0.68)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.64)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.62)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCY


MNST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNST  Monster Beverage (0.0)


RPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPM  RPM International (-0.0)


RIVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIVN  Rivian Automotive (0.0)


PRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRM  Perimeter Solutions SA (0.0)


GLW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLW  Corning (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCY


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.37)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (-0.38)


ULCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ULCC  Frontier (-0.38)


RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (-0.41)


EUO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EUO  ProShares UltraShort Euro (-0.52)







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