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PCY Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Emerging markets stabilize, boosting PCY due to increased yields and investor confidence. Rising foreign investment signals potential growth.

Bearish Case: High geopolitical risk and potential interest rate hikes may deter investments, causing PCY to decline further. Mean-reverting trends suggest limited upside.

Potential Outcomes: Economic stabilization and bond demand boost PCY (30%).
Interest rate hikes depress valuations (20%).
Geopolitical tensions rise, affecting markets (25%).
Institutional pressures reduce holdings (25%).

March 21, 2025

Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Forecast

PCY Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt

Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCY

IGLB BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond (0.89)

VGLT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.76)

VXUS Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total International Stock (0.68)

VOD Vodafone (0.64)

XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.62)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCY

ILMN Illumina (-0.0)

MNST Monster Beverage (0.0)

POWL Powell Industries (-0.0)

RIVN Rivian Automotive (0.0)

IVW BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P 500 Growth (0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCY

ASAN Asana (-0.33)

GTLS Chart Industries (-0.36)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.37)

RIOT Riot Blockchain (-0.41)

EUO ProShares UltraShort Euro (-0.52)

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