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PCY Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Stabilizing emerging markets and increased institutional interest hint at potential price recovery for PCY, supported by favorable economic conditions and declining geopolitical risks. Mean reversion strengthens bullish outlook.

Bearish Case: Volatile emerging market conditions and geopolitical instabilities could constrain PCY's growth. Persistent high implied volatility and recent mean-reverting trends suggest potential downside risk.

Potential Outcomes: Economic stabilization in emerging markets (35%).
Increased geopolitical tensions (25%).
Interest rate hikes impact (20%).
Rising institutional investments (20%).

Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish debit spread by buying PCY $20 calls and selling $23 calls, expiring in June 2025. This strategy leverages potential upward price movement and current high volatility, providing a balanced reward-risk ratio.

January 31, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCY

VGLT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.68)

VOD Vodafone (0.68)

XLB Active Trust - Materials Select Sector SPDR (0.65)

MFA MFA Financial (0.64)

PPH VanEck Pharmaceutical (0.62)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCY

BGS B&G Foods (0.0)

LEA Lear (-0.0)

SOFI SoFi (-0.0)

CRON Cronos (-0.0)

WFRD Weatherford International plc - New (0.0)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCY

ASAN Asana (-0.4)

FRSH Freshworks (-0.4)

FREY FREYR Battery (-0.41)

PLBY PLBY (-0.44)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.68)

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