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PCY Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: PCY may benefit from stabilization in emerging markets, attracting foreign investment. Historical mean-reversion and potential geopolitical stability could drive demand for sovereign debt.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility suggests uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions and potential interest rate hikes, leading to investor hesitance and further price drops.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Economic Recovery (30%): Price support due to improved fundamentals.
  • Geopolitical Tensions (25%): Potential price decline from destabilization.
  • Interest Rate Hikes (25%): Depresses high-yield bond valuations.
  • Increased Investment (20%): Price uplift due to rising demand.


April 17, 2025


Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Forecast

PCY        Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCY


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.73)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.73)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.71)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.7)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCY


SBGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBGI  Sinclair Broadcast Group (0.0)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (-0.0)


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (0.0)


DAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAR  Darling Ingredients (0.0)


CHWY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHWY  Chewy (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCY


IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (-0.4)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.43)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.47)


CXW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CXW  CoreCivic (-0.5)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.69)







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