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PCY Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Economic stabilization in emerging markets might boost PCY as high-yield bonds become attractive. The historical return surface shows potential for positive returns, though probability is moderate.

Bearish Case: High likelihood of negative returns evident from historical data and heightened geopolitical risks may increase institutional selling, further depressing PCY prices.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Stabilization in emerging markets (35%): Supports PCY.

2. Emerging market geopolitical tensions (30%): Pressures bonds.

3. Interest rate hikes (20%): Reduces appeal of high-yield bonds.

4. Increased foreign investment (15%): Boosts demand.

Trading Oracle: Engage a bearish Helium short volatility strategy using credit spreads. Sell March 2025, $20.00 call options and buy $23.00 calls. Exploit the high implied volatility, with a three-month outlook. Manage risk with stop-loss orders.

January 02, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCY

XLB Active Trust - Materials Select Sector SPDR (0.68)

XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (0.66)

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.65)

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.63)

ICE Intercontinental Exchange (0.62)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCY

DNN Denison Mines (0.0)

ARKG ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (0.01)

GTE Gran Tierra Energy (-0.01)

SRRK Scholar Rock (0.02)

ON ON Semiconductor (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCY

IRTC iRhythm (-0.53)

AMR Alta Mesa Resources (-0.55)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.57)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.59)

LABD Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.62)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.