PMF Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Mean reversion supported by historical trends suggests potential upside. Institutional backing and defensive nature in turbulent markets could stabilize and boost PMF prices.




Bearish Case: Historical data indicates a high likelihood of further declines. Persistent high rates undermine municipal bond appeal, potentially exacerbating negative returns for PMF.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Mean reversion (+60%): 40% probability
  • Institutional support (+30%): 30% probability
  • Price decline due to rates (-30%): 20% probability
  • Increased volatility (+10%): 10% probability



June 20, 2025


Pimco Municipal Income Forecast

PMF        Pimco Municipal Income











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PMF



OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (0.92)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.88)


PHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHG  Koninklijke Philips (0.84)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.84)


BAH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAH  Booz Allen Hamilton (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PMF



BLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLK  Blackrock (0.0)


BEKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEKE  KE (-0.01)


BWXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BWXT  BWX (-0.01)


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (0.01)


STNE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNE  StoneCo (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PMF



HOOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HOOD  Robinhood Markets (-0.7)


OKTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OKTA  Okta (-0.73)


PCRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCRX  Pacira BioSciences (-0.73)


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (-0.74)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.75)









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