Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A potential bullish scenario emerges from institutional accumulation combined with stabilizing interest rates, possibly resulting in a mean reversion towards historical averages (+60% potential over 1-2 years).

Bearish Case: High interest rates persist, suppressing demand for PMF and leading to further declines (-30% potential) with a neutral market sentiment contributing to continued price stagnation.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion (+60%, 40%).

2. Price decline due to high rates (-30%, 30%).

3. Stabilization at current levels (+0%, 20%).

4. Increased volatility due to sentiment shifts (+10%, 10%).

Trading Oracle: Consider executing debit spreads on PMF to capitalize on potential volatility and mean reversion, targeting a 3-6 month expiration. This strategy maximizes the upside potential while managing risk appropriately in a bullish outlook, aiming for favorable risk/reward ratios to generate alpha.

November 19, 2024