PMF Forecast


Bullish Case: PMF has a high likelihood of returning less negative or slightly positive returns in the short-term, with mean-reverting tendencies indicating potential recovery from historical lows. Institutional backing and solid dividend yield bolster its defensive appeal.


Bearish Case: PMF's historical performance shows a strong likelihood of continued declines across most holding periods, coupled with a neutral AI forecast and mean reversion suggesting limited upside. Elevated interest rates may reduce demand for munis, pressuring prices further.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued mean reversion (+60%) as PMF moves towards historical means.

2. Institutional accumulation (+30%) supports price stability.

3. Market sentiment shifts (+10%) lead to increased volatility. Probabilities based on historical return surfaces and institutional holdings.


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June 28, 2024


Pimco Municipal Income Forecast

PMF      Pimco Municipal Income











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