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REIT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The REIT historical return surface suggests moderate positive returns likely over longer holding periods. With potential rate cuts, investor appeal may grow, boosting recovery potential.

Bearish Case: REIT recent flat price action and historical return data suggest possible downside risks. Economic uncertainty and rising vacancy rates could depress valuations further.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate positive returns from rate cuts (60%)

2. Economic challenges increase vacancies, pressuring values (30%)

3. Stable but low growth (10%).

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February 20, 2025

ALPS Active REIT Forecast

REIT ALPS Active REIT

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to REIT

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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against REIT

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