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REIT Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: REITs trading at historically low valuations may attract investors. Potential interest rate cuts could lower borrowing costs, fostering capital inflow and price recovery, leveraging long-term positive return probabilities.



Bearish Case: High interest rates and economic uncertainty could increase vacancy rates and depress valuations further. The historical return surface suggests significant downside risks, especially short-term.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of moderate gains from anticipated rate cuts.
  • 35% chance of stagnation due to flat recent pricing and volatility.
  • 25% chance of declines driven by economic pressures and high interest rates.


June 27, 2025


ALPS Active REIT Forecast

REIT        ALPS Active REIT

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with REIT


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.97)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.89)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (0.81)


FITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FITB  Fifth Third Bancorp (0.8)


IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to REIT


EQX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQX  Equinox Gold (-0.0)


FTNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTNT  Fortinet (0.0)


AXON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXON  Axon Enterprise (0.0)


HII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HII  Huntington Ingalls Industries (-0.0)


FUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUN  Cedar Fair (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against REIT


OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (-0.43)


DPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPZ  Dominos Pizza (-0.46)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (-0.54)


OKTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OKTA  Okta (-0.62)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.72)







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