REIT Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: REITs trading at historically low valuations may attract investors. Potential interest rate cuts could lower borrowing costs, fostering capital inflow and price recovery, leveraging long-term positive return probabilities.




Bearish Case: High interest rates and economic uncertainty could increase vacancy rates and depress valuations further. The historical return surface suggests significant downside risks, especially short-term.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of moderate gains from anticipated rate cuts.
  • 35% chance of stagnation due to flat recent pricing and volatility.
  • 25% chance of declines driven by economic pressures and high interest rates.



June 27, 2025


ALPS Active REIT Forecast

REIT        ALPS Active REIT











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with REIT



VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.97)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.89)


NKE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKE  Nike (0.81)


FITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FITB  Fifth Third Bancorp (0.8)


IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to REIT



EQX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQX  Equinox Gold (-0.0)


FTNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTNT  Fortinet (0.0)


AXON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXON  Axon Enterprise (0.0)


HII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HII  Huntington Ingalls Industries (-0.0)


FUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUN  Cedar Fair (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against REIT



OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (-0.43)


DPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DPZ  Dominos Pizza (-0.46)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (-0.54)


OKTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OKTA  Okta (-0.62)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.72)









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