Bullish Case: RGNX's mean-reverting setup, plus a favorable patent ruling and Sarepta’s April rehearing denial, creates upside optionality. The RGNX volatility surface shows upside-skewed long-dated demand (elevated IV on 07/17/2026 and 06/18/2026 calls), signaling belief in an outsized move if IP value and licensing materialize. IPS leverage and potential collaborations could re-rate shares toward the high single digits to low teens even as near-term risk remains.

Bearish Case: IP risk persists; licensing and FDA clarity remain uncertain. The market’s backwardated IV and mean-reversion in price imply limited upside without a concrete monetization event, and a failure to secure licensing or a favorable regulatory outcome could push RGNX toward mid-$5s. Dilution risk and cash burn remain tail risks if external financing becomes necessary.

Potential Outcomes:

• IP holds: 28% -> +10-25% in 2-6m.
• Licensing/settlement: 18% -> +12-28%.
• Adverse FDA/CRL: 15% -> -10 to -20%.
• Dilution risk: 12% -> -5 to -10%.
• Deal talks/M&A: 10% -> +18-40%.

April 30, 2026