ROKU Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Roku's innovative moves like the Roku Exchange enhance ad offerings and improve user engagement, suggesting potential for revenue growth in its core business.


Bearish Case: Challenges such as intensified competition and a high volatility environment could undermine Roku's recovery efforts, casting doubt on sustained growth.


Potential Outcomes: 55%: Revenue growth from new ad initiatives, 35%: Struggles with competition and declining market share, and 10%: Unanticipated innovation alters market position.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish Helium short volatility strategy given high implied volatilities and mean reversion. Implement a bearish credit spread: Sell $55.0 call, buy $57.0 call, expiring in 14 days. This high-probability, high-reward setup leverages high theta decay and positive edge.


June 24, 2024










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Uncorrelated Assets

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KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.0)


WCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WCC  Wesco International (-0.0)


BITF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BITF  Bitfarms (-0.0)


AES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AES  AES (-0.0)


CME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CME  CME (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ROKU



KBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KBR  KBR (-0.73)


AR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AR  Antero Resources (-0.74)


BJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BJ  BJ's Wholesale Club (-0.74)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (-0.76)


CRTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRTO  Criteo (-0.76)





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