SAA Forecast


Bullish Case: SAA's recent modest gains (13.1% last week) and its relatively high implied volatility suggest potential for short-term uptrends. Long-term holding trends indicate decent likelihood of positive returns.


Bearish Case: The SAA is at elevated implied volatility levels and prior bearish predictions were accurate short-term (-7.8% in 30 days). Market concerns remain high, with potentially higher downside risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Prolonged downturn due to volatility spikes and negative market sentiment: 40%.

2. Short-term price rally due to volatility-driven trading: 30%.

3. Continued flat or slight downward trends on sustained fears: 30%.


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July 16, 2024


ProShares Ultra SmallCap600 Forecast

SAA      ProShares Ultra SmallCap600











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URTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URTY  ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 (0.96)


VTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTWO  Vanguard Russell 2000 Index (0.94)


APAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APAM  Artisan Partners Asset (0.91)


SNV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNV  Synovus Financial (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAA



OI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OI  O-I Glass (0.0)


CCOI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCOI  Cogent Communications (-0.0)


ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (0.0)


TXG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXG  10x Genomics (-0.0)


AGCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGCO  AGCO (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAA



REK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REK  ProShares Short Real Estate (-0.83)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.84)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.84)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.93)





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