SAR Forecast


Bullish Case: The SAR price is expected to rebound towards $24, supported by a 30% historical probability indicated by past return patterns, trading 99% higher call option volume, and a recent price uptick per the AI forecast [Helium][Helium][Helium].


Bearish Case: Considering high implied volatility on OTM put options and the low likelihood of significant positive returns over short holding periods per historical returns, SAR may decline to $20 or below, with a 25-35% probability [Helium][Helium][Helium].


Potential Outcomes: Probable outcomes include SAR correcting to $20 (-30%, 35%), recovering to $24 (+4.4%, 30%), dropping to $18 (-21.7%, 25%), or rallying above $27 (+17.5%, 10%) [Helium].


Trading Oracle: For optimal risk/reward, implement a short volatility strategy. Sell the SAR 11/15/2024 25 Call, balancing the expected muted price movements, supported by SAR’s return surface and topped volumes in low delta options. This leverages high probability setups while capping upside/downside risks .


July 16, 2024


Saratoga Investment Forecast

SAR      Saratoga Investment











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAR



SGML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SGML  Sigma Lithium (0.85)


JKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JKS  JinkoSolar (0.84)


CVAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVAC  CureVac (0.83)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (0.83)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAR



XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.0)


OLN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLN  Olin (-0.0)


TXN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXN  Texas Instruments (0.0)


CRMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRMD  CorMedix (-0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAR



STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.78)


CHKP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHKP  Check Point Software Technolgies (-0.78)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (-0.78)


WRB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WRB  W.R. Berkley (-0.78)


YCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCS  ProShares UltraShort Yen (-0.79)





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