SCHD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: SCHD's stable dividends and low volatility suggest potential for gradual appreciation. Rebalancing creates buy opportunities.




Bearish Case: Recent price decline and high implied volatility indicate potential downside, with macroeconomic risks threatening dividend growth.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Gradual uptrend continues (45%).

2. Stabilizes around current levels (30%).

3. Potential decline in turbulent markets (25%).




Trading Oracle: Exploit current higher implied volatility with Bearish Long Volatility Strategy. Given market sentiment and ongoing global uncertainties, buy OOTM puts for optimal leverage against price swings.



April 10, 2025


Schwab US Dividend Equity Forecast

SCHD        Schwab US Dividend Equity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SCHD



VIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIG  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation FTF (0.92)


MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (0.92)


RPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPM  RPM International (0.91)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (0.91)


CBRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBRE  CBRE (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCHD



DKL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKL  Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


PCAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCAR  Paccar (0.01)


SJM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SJM  J.M. Smucker (0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCHD



VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (-0.75)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.76)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.76)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.77)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.78)









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