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SCHD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: SCHD's low volatility and consistent dividends present an opportunity for steady appreciation, especially with a strong market for yield-focused investments.

Bearish Case: Implied volatility backwardation and stagnant historical returns suggest potential downside, exacerbated by macroeconomic uncertainties and sector-specific risks.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 55% chance SCHD mildly appreciates due to stable dividends.

2. 30% chance it remains flat, reflecting current sentiment.

3. 15% chance it declines with economic pressures.

March 12, 2025

Schwab US Dividend Equity Forecast

SCHD Schwab US Dividend Equity

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SCHD

SPYV SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.97)

DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.93)

HIG Hartford Financial Services (0.91)

CINF Cincinnati Financial (0.91)

CBRE CBRE (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCHD

INTU Intuit (-0.01)

EPI WisdomTree India Earnings (0.01)

DKL Delek Logistics Partners LP - Unit (0.01)

SGRY Surgery (0.01)

AEHR Aehr Test Systems (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCHD

DVN Devon Energy (-0.77)

CLW Clearwater Paper (-0.8)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.8)

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.81)

ASML New York Shares (-0.84)

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