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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The SCHD implied volatility is relatively low at 9.8% and shows potential for a rebound due to a 55% chance of modest annual gains (+3% predicted return). Key catalysts include favorable market sentiment and consistent dividend support.



Bearish Case: With SCHD currently down approximately 65% from prior highs, market volatility remains high at 14.9%. Sentiment indicates a 30% chance of stagnation or declines based on recent trading volume undershooting historical norms, suggesting potential downside risk.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Modest recovery to $30 (45% chance).

2. Continued stagnation around $28 (35% chance).

3. Decline toward $26 (15% chance).

4. Major downturn to below $25 (5% chance). These probabilities reflect historical performance and current market conditions.



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October 30, 2024


Schwab US Dividend Equity Forecast

SCHD        Schwab US Dividend Equity

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SCHD


SCHG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHG  Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth (0.86)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (0.74)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.72)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (0.72)


DHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DHR  Danaher (0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCHD


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (-0.0)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (0.0)


APD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APD  Air Products & Chemicals (0.0)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.0)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCHD


ALGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGT  Allegiant Travel (-0.62)


UPWK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UPWK  Upwork (-0.63)


UROY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UROY  Uranium Royalty (-0.65)


IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (-0.7)


MAXN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAXN  Maxeon Solar (-0.81)







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