SCHD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: SCHD's stable dividends and low volatility suggest potential for gradual appreciation. Rebalancing creates buy opportunities.




Bearish Case: Recent price decline and high implied volatility indicate potential downside, with macroeconomic risks threatening dividend growth.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Gradual uptrend continues (45%).

2. Stabilizes around current levels (30%).

3. Potential decline in turbulent markets (25%).




Trading Oracle: Exploit current higher implied volatility with Bearish Long Volatility Strategy. Given market sentiment and ongoing global uncertainties, buy OOTM puts for optimal leverage against price swings.



April 10, 2025


Schwab US Dividend Equity Forecast

SCHD        Schwab US Dividend Equity











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FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (0.9)


RPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPM  RPM International (0.9)


VIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIG  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation FTF (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCHD



MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (-0.0)


CVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVX  Chevron (0.01)


AMGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMGN  AMGEN (-0.01)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (0.01)


EPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPI  WisdomTree India Earnings (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCHD



MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.72)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.73)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.73)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.74)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (-0.82)









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