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SHEL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Shell's ongoing investment in renewables coupled with strong historical returns suggests further upside potential. The current flat term structure indicates market stability, supporting bullish momentum.



Bearish Case: High near-term implied volatility and market uncertainty could signal potential downside risks. Shell's sensitivity to geopolitical factors and environmental concerns pose risks to its price stability.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance of stabilizing around $71 given historical mean reversion.
  • 25% probability of an upward move to $75 due to renewable investments.
  • 20% likelihood of a decline to $68 amidst market volatility.
  • 25% chance of increased volatility due to external factors.



Trading Oracle:
Profitable Strategy: Bearish Short Volatility. Given the flat term structure and historical mean reversion, a Bearish Short Volatility strategy is appropriate. Execute by selling ATM call options and buying more OTM call options to capitalize on potential price stabilization. Explore Strategy


March 23, 2025


Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) Forecast

SHEL        Shell Plc - ADR (Representing)

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