Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: SHEL's earnings report surpassed expectations, and bullish sentiment is reflected in trading volume with an upward trend in implied volatility, suggesting sustained upward momentum.

Bearish Case: Rising geopolitical tensions may trigger a downturn, compounded by reduced demand expectations. High volatility indicates market unease and potential for significant price swings.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance SHEL moves to $70 by year-end due to strong earnings;

2. 25% chance SHEL stabilizes around $65;

3. 20% chance for a decline to $62 influenced by external risks;

4. 15% probability for rapid volatility spikes;

5. 10% chance for continued downturn below $60 due to demand concerns.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread strategy by buying $67.50 calls and selling $70 calls, capitalizing on high volume in call options and favorable market conditions. With high implied volatility, expect significant potential returns around earnings dates. Consider adding puts to hedge risk for downside protection.

November 14, 2024