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STM Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Potential growth from tech innovations and possible upward corrections make STM an appealing buy, especially if semiconductor trends continue to support market confidence.



Bearish Case: With STM down 51.6% YoY and implied volatility indicating uncertainty, risks of further declines due to market corrections and macroeconomic pressures are significant.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of slight rebound due to tech sector recovery.
  • 35% risk of further decline.
  • 25% market volatility spikes.



Trading Oracle: Implement iron condors around the May expiry capturing high implied volatility (IV). Sell STM 21/25 call spreads and 19/15 put spreads. This is a neutral strategy utilizing elevated IV for premium decay, high probability of profit given ATM volatility structure.


February 04, 2025


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