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TAIL Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: A major market shock could revive interest in $TAIL, leveraging its role as a hedge. Historical data suggests sharp gains during crises, making it attractive in high-volatility contexts.



Bearish Case: Consistent underperformance in stable conditions is likely to persist, depressingly correlated with low-volatility environments. Historical trends and mean-reversion suggest limited upside without major market disruption.



Potential Outcomes: Outcomes:

1. Continued underperformance due to stability (65%).

2. Market crisis boosts $TAIL (20%).

3. Minor gains amid short-term volatility (15%).


July 15, 2025


Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Tail Risk Forecast

TAIL        Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Tail Risk

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TAIL


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.74)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.58)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (0.58)


CBOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBOE  Cboe Global Markets (0.46)


GPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPC  Genuine Parts (0.25)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TAIL


ZS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZS  Zscaler (-0.01)


GILD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GILD  Gilead Sciences (-0.01)


MCHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCHI  BTC iShares MSCI China (0.01)


GOOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOS  Canada Goose Holdings Inc (Subord Vot Shs) (0.01)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TAIL


JBLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBLU  Jetblue Airways (-0.78)


PNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNC  PNC Financial Services (-0.78)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (-0.78)


VB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VB  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Small Cap (-0.8)


LULU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LULU  Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.81)







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