TAIL Forecast


Bullish Case: TAIL's current low price offers a strategic entry for hedging against market downturns. The historical surface indicates potential for positive returns in turbulent environments, bolstering attractiveness to risk-averse investors.


Bearish Case: TAIL's consistent negative returns over various holding periods reflect inefficiency in capturing tail risk events, signaling poor performance metrics and limited upside despite market uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Market crisis drives TAIL up (20%).

2. Continued underperformance with macro stability (65%).

3. Medium-term volatility leads to slight gains (15%). Predictions based on historical trends and current market conditions.


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June 25, 2024


Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Tail Risk Forecast

TAIL      Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Tail Risk











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TAIL



PRTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRTA  Prothena (0.97)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.97)


CMP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMP  Compass Minerals International (0.96)


MX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MX  MagnaChip Semiconductor (0.96)


TTEC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTEC  TTEC (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TAIL



MNSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MNSO  MINISO Group Holding Ltd (-0.0)


BBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBY  Best Buy (0.0)


NVS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVS  Novartis (-0.0)


AKBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AKBA  Akebia Therapeutics (-0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TAIL



NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.96)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.96)


CLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLS  Celestica (-0.96)


VRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRT  Vertiv (-0.97)


CEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CEG  Constellation Energy (-0.97)





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