AI TAIL Forecast


Bullish Case: Increased demand for tail-risk hedging amid rising geopolitical tensions could drive TAIL's value up. Historical data indicates potential for positive returns during crises, supported by high implied volatility, making it attractive for risk-averse investors.




Bearish Case: Persistent macroeconomic stability and investor preference for equities over hedging vehicles may depress TAIL's valuation. Historical trends show significant negative returns, indicating potential underperformance unless a market correction occurs.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Market crisis causes TAIL to surge (20% chance).

2. Continued underperformance in stable conditions (65% chance).

3. Minor gains from medium-term volatility (15% chance). Future conditions reflect past predictions of limited upside in stable markets.




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October 09, 2024


Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Tail Risk Forecast

TAIL        Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Tail Risk











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VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.91)


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IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (0.87)


APPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APPS  Digital Turbine (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TAIL



GRWG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRWG  GrowGeneration (-0.0)


IE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IE  Ivanhoe Electric (0.01)


FL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FL  Foot Locker (-0.01)


FWRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FWRG  First Watch Restaurant (0.01)


CSGP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CSGP  Costar Group (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TAIL



VRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRT  Vertiv (-0.93)


MU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MU  Micron Technology (-0.93)


SB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SB  Safe Bulkers (-0.93)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.94)


DXJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXJ  WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (-0.96)









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