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TAIL Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: TAIL could benefit from anticipated market volatility, gaining appeal as a hedge against downturns, leveraging its historical performance during crises.



Bearish Case: Historical underperformance and mean-reversion, particularly in stable markets, suggest TAIL could continue to struggle lacking significant market turmoil or volatility spikes.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Market crisis boosts TAIL by 20% (25% chance).

2. Stability leads to underperformance (60% chance).

3. Mid-term volatility yields minor gains (15% chance).



Trading Oracle: Consider a Helium credit spread strategy focusing on bearish outlook given stable conditions and historical underperformance. Use TAIL 06/20/2025 12.00 puts, selling 11.00 puts. This balances risk while exploiting high implied volatility for profit. Time frame: 4-5 months.


February 08, 2025


Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Tail Risk Forecast

TAIL        Cambria Investment Management LP - Cambria Tail Risk

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TAIL


IQV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IQV  IQVIA (0.86)


HII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HII  Huntington Ingalls Industries (0.84)


HSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HSY  Hershey (0.84)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (0.83)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TAIL


PSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSN  Parsons (-0.01)


VERV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VERV  Verve Therapeutics (-0.01)


ATI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATI  Allegheny (-0.01)


USAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USAC  USA Compression (0.01)


DKNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKNG  DraftKings (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TAIL


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (-0.86)


AMZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMZN  Amazon.com (-0.88)


CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.89)


WRBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WRBY  Warby Parker (-0.89)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (-0.93)







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