Bullish Case: The TAN options market shows elevated implied volatility, suggesting a potential price rebound. Recent technological advancements in solar energy and favorable policy conditions could drive TAN upward.

Bearish Case: Persistent political instability and rising interest rates pose significant risks to TAN. The current economic uncertainty, highlighted by high implied volatility, may lead to further price declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Bullish scenario: Market stabilizes with increased adoption of solar technology (40%).

2. Moderate volatility with mixed news: Continued fluctuations around $34 (30%).

3. Political pressure leads to impacts on solar sector growth (20%).

4. Major downturn due to economic factors (10%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish approach using diagonal debit spreads. Buy the TAN 12/20/2024 $36 calls and sell the 01/17/2025 $40 calls for a higher probability of profit with favorable implied volatility backdrop. Focus on capturing upside as we approach significant tech announcements and policy support.

November 17, 2024