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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Current market conditions, including a significant surge in call write volumes and impending technological advancements in solar energy, suggest a bullish outlook, with TAN potentially rebounding towards $45 by year-end.

Bearish Case: Persistent high interest rates and macroeconomic pressures may suppress investment in solar sectors, leading to further declines in TAN towards $35 within upcoming months.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rally to $45 (40%);

2. Sustained pressure around $38-$40 (30%);

3. Decline to $35 or lower (30%). These probabilities account for volatility spikes and historical trends.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish approach by initiating a debit spread: buy the TAN 10/18/2024 $45 call and sell the $50 call. High implied volatility suggests capturing upward movement while defining risk effectively. This aligns with positive sentiment and recent trends while targeting a 1-month horizon for enhanced returns.

October 20, 2024