Bullish Case: Copper is at record highs with UBS naming TECK a top supply-squeeze pick, the Centinela strike threatens further supply loss, and TECK call volume runs 72% above puts with bullish risk +21%. Helium's +2.0% signal and a density mode near $59–61 with upside mass to $75+ support a grind toward $68–72 if backwardation decays and near-dated IV cools from ~98% front-month.

Bearish Case: Term structure is in backwardation with front-week Helium IV near 98% and market IV 63%, signaling unresolved near-term event risk. The surface prices downside strikes far more expensively (deep puts 100–400% IV), and Helium's density sits below spot, implying distribution risk toward $55–58 if copper stumbles or the Centinela strike resolves bearishly.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% $62–68 range: Helium density mode ($59–61) holds; IV mean-reverts post 11/20 expiry.
2. 28% +6–12% to $69–73: copper supply squeeze extends; calls keep outbidding puts.
3. 27% -8–-15% to $55–60: copper pullback/risk-off; steep left-tail IV already prices this.
4. 15% ≤$54 or ≥$78: macro shock or breakout; SPY surface shows contained vol, favoring tail risk as macro-driven.

November 10, 2026