Bullish Case: TJX bounced +6.6% off last week's $122.84 low to $130.97, and Helium's forecast is +2.5% with bullish risk 8% above bearish and calls trading 56% over puts. The $331M tariff refund adds a one-time cash cushion, and the Helium density peaks at $131 with a fat right tail toward $135+. Near-dated IV collapsing from 64% to ~14% signals the panic is being repriced out, favoring stabilization and drift higher.

Bearish Case: TJX is still -15.3% over 90 days and -5.7% YoY with weakening comps per the Sep 19 Seeking Alpha critique, an 11.3x book multiple, and tariff drag economists size at 7-10% index-wide. The term structure is backwardated (Sept 26 Helium IV 16.5% vs 13.3% Oct 10, market 39.6%) signaling unresolved near-term stress, and Helium's density retains meaningful mass below $125. Refunds are one-off, not a comps fix.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% — Stabilization $128-$136: post-bounce mean reversion; Helium density mode $131, IV decays past Oct 10 (test: IV <15% by Oct 3).
2. 25% — Continued recovery +2-6%: call-heavy flow (56%) and +2.5% signal; falsified if price closes below $128.
3. 20% — Renewed decline to $118-$125: comps weakness + SPY downside-skewed surface (IV 35+ on low strikes) transmits; trigger: break of $128.
4. 10% — Event IV spike, flat price: Oct/Nov expiry hedging; backwardation persists.
5. 5% — Sharp -10%+ macro shock: tariff data deteriorates further.

September 23, 2026