Bullish Case: Known: Helium tilts +3% with call volume dominating. TRP is flat vs a month ago (-0.2%). The TRP IV surface shows muted vol near 65–75 (purple) while deep puts (35–55) are priced far higher (red), and term structure is backwardated. Inferred: upside needs only modest price improvement without further skew expansion. Oracle: a limited-risk long-call convexity profile tends to benefit if 67–70 holds and 65P IV doesn’t reprice upward into upcoming earnings/regulatory headlines.

Bearish Case: Known: backwardation + very elevated 35–55 put IV early on the TRP surface implies a near-term downside tail premium (~1–6 weeks). Helium-minus-market uncertainty is also stronger in the low-strike region (red), suggesting dispersion not fully captured by market pricing. SPY’s IV surface has persistent put skew, so risk-off macro can transmit. Counter: if skew mean-reverts and price stays pinned, bearish skew breaks. Oracle: skew/put-hedge convexity helps if 65P IV rises faster than calls while price loses 67.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% (vs May) +0–4%: 67–70 holds; call IV < put skew.
2. 20% ±3%: backwardation fades w/o big move.
3. 15% -5–8%: 65P IV jumps with SPY risk-off.
4. 15% +6–10%: break >72; call IV contained.
5. 10% -12%+: regulatory/commodity shock steepens deep-put IV.

June 25, 2026