TRV Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Improving earnings growth and a favorable options term structure (with lower volatility than the market) indicate a potential bullish reversal for TRV. Strong institutional buy interest supports a rebound in share price.




Bearish Case: With TRV currently at a significant premium and implied volatility peaking at less optimal levels, a near-term correction is plausible if market sentiment shifts negatively or earnings miss expectations.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate price increase (45% probability) due to improved fundamentals.

2. Significant correction (35% probability) triggered by earnings disappointments.

3. Sideways movement as volatility stabilizes (20% probability).




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November 08, 2024


Travelers Companies Forecast

TRV        Travelers Companies











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TRV



MA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MA  Mastercard Incorporated (0.95)


CRH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRH  CRH Plc (0.91)


IHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IHI  BTC iShares U.S. Medical (0.9)


ALLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLE  Allegion (0.89)


PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TRV



TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.0)


PSQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSQ  ProShares Short QQQ (0.0)


ARE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARE  Alexandria Real Estate (0.0)


ALGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGN  Align Technology (0.01)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TRV



ACLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACLS  Axcelis (-0.78)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.79)


EQNR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EQNR  Equinor ASA - (-0.8)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.81)


HLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HLF  Herbalife Nutrition (-0.85)









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