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UAL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Strong U.S.-China travel growth, coupled with high implied volatility, supports a bullish outlook. Positive earnings and strategic expansions enhance growth potential.



Bearish Case: Operational issues, high implied volatility, and mixed passenger sentiment could lead to downside risks. Social media frustrations and reputational challenges persist.



Potential Outcomes: Growth in U.S.-China travel boosts UAL (60%). Operational setbacks hinder performance (40%). Implied volatility increase suggests potential price movements.



Trading Oracle: Execute bullish debit spreads by buying $95 calls and selling $100 calls expiring in early January. High implied volatility offers positive edge with potentially high reward-risk ratio. Focus on short-term gains.


December 24, 2024


United Airlines Forecast

UAL        United Airlines

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Assets that tend to move strongly with UAL


FUTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUTU  Futu (0.85)


DB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DB  Deutsche (0.84)


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (0.83)


MCHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCHI  BTC iShares MSCI China (0.82)


HSBC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HSBC  HSBC (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UAL


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.0)


CURE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CURE  Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X Shares (-0.0)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (0.0)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (-0.01)


CTAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTAS  Cintas (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UAL


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.71)


CHPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHPT  ChargePoint (-0.73)


MGPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MGPI  MGP Ingredients (-0.76)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.81)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.87)







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