Bullish Case: The return surface suggests a reasonable likelihood of positive returns over longer holding periods, coupled with stabilizing economic indicators and consumer confidence.

Bearish Case: The historical price return surface highlights risks of negative returns in shorter periods, exacerbated by recent geopolitical tensions and potential economic slowdowns.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic Growth: 45% - supported by strong consumer confidence and policy measures.
2. Recession: 30% - due to persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions.
3. Technological Innovation: 15% - potential breakthroughs in AI and biotech.
4. Political Instability: 10% - recent calming of social unrest.

Trading Oracle: Execute Helium Long Volatility debit spreads with a 9-12 month horizon on USA. Focus on leveraging low current volatility to capture potential upward and downward price movements. This provides a balanced risk while aiming for high reward:risk outcomes.

February 25, 2025