USA Forecast




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Historical trends indicate a higher likelihood of positive returns over longer holding periods (>1 year). Economic stabilization and consumer spending may catalyze growth.




Bearish Case: Short-term holding periods show significant downside risk. Elevated SPY volatility signals potential market uncertainty, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Economic Growth: 50% probability; increased consumer confidence.
  • Recession: 25% probability; inflationary risks.
  • Stability: 15% probability; geopolitical tension ease.




Trading Oracle: Utilize Helium Long Volatility debit spreads with a 6-12 month horizon. Focus on capitalizing SPY volatility spikes while anticipating potential market rebounds. Prioritize strikes aligning with current volatility trends, ensuring high reward:risk ratios.



December 26, 2024


Liberty All-Star Equity Forecast

USA        Liberty All-Star Equity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USA



RJF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RJF  Raymond James Financial (0.86)


LYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYV  Live Nation Entertainment (0.85)


TRMB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRMB  Trimble (0.84)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (0.81)


CPRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPRT  Copart (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USA



BC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BC  Brunswick (-0.0)


HP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HP  Helmerich & Payne (-0.0)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.01)


NICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NICE  NICE (0.01)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USA



BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.6)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.63)


AMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMN  AMN Healthcare Services (-0.65)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.67)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.71)









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