VEU Forecast


Bullish Case: VEU may rally due to improving global economic conditions and increased institutional inflows, evidenced by hedging demand as reflected in the elevated implied volatility for calls. A significant recovery in international markets could drive returns above $60, benefiting diversified global exposure.


Bearish Case: Headwinds from geopolitical tensions and economic stagnation could weigh heavily on VEU. Short-term sentiment remains cautious, as downward pressure from declining volatility trends and low historical returns risks pushing prices back toward the lower range around $55.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% chance of strong recovery in global growth leading to significant gains above $60.

2. 30% chance of continued stagnation pushing VEU down to mid-$55s.

3. 35% chance of sideways movement around $58 amidst mixed economic signals.


Trading Oracle: Consider establishing a neutral-to-bullish position with near-term OTM debit spreads around $59-$60, leveraging relatively high implied volatility for calls to capitalize on potential upside while managing risk. Time outlook should focus on upcoming economic indicators within 30-60 days.


July 25, 2024


Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Forecast

VEU      Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US











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IWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWD  iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.97)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VEU



WMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMG  Warner Music (0.0)


SMAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMAR  Smartsheet (0.0)


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FSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSK  FS KKR (-0.0)


EWZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWZ  iShares MSCI Brazil (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VEU



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TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.95)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.95)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.96)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.97)





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