Bullish Case: VGK is mean reverting with a long-term positive trend and recent history indicates a potential for upside. The bullish skew in risk, recent price recovery, and low implied volatility suggest space for growth.


Bearish Case: Historical short-term stagnation and negative HeliumTrades AI forecasts contribute to a bearish outlook. The flat volatility term structure and potentially limited upward movement given past underperformance add to the caution.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Recovery builds on mean reversion: 40%.

2) Sideways market due to significant past stagnation: 35%.

3) Volatility spike if unexpected events occur: 25%. Outcomes estimated from historical data and AI forecasts.


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February 15, 2024


Vanguard FTSE Europe Forecast

[VGK]  Vanguard FTSE Europe
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)



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VGK Balanced News:


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Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with VGK



VEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VEA]  Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (0.97)


RRR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RRR]  Red Rock Resorts (0.89)


ABT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ABT]  Abbott Laboratories (0.87)


PVH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PVH]  PVH (0.86)


CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CNI]  Canadian National Railway (0.86)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to VGK



SFIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SFIX]  Stitch Fix (0.0)


FF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FF]  Futurefuel (-0.0)


CNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CNQ]  Canadian Natural Resources (0.0)


NVST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [NVST]  Envista (0.0)


ACRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ACRS]  Aclaris Therapeutics (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against VGK



DOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DOG]  ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.67)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JDST]  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.72)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SRS]  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.78)


REK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [REK]  ProShares Short Real Estate (-0.78)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DRV]  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.79)





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