VNDA Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent FDA approvals for Fanapt and multiple buyout offers indicate confidence in VNDA’s growth potential. A robust cash position and upcoming launches could drive price increases.


Bearish Case: Continued generic competition and Vanda's rejections of premium takeover offers might indicate management's overestimation of intrinsic value, risking shareholder value amid declining revenues.


Potential Outcomes:

1) FDA approval of new drugs: 50%.

2) Generic competition impacts revenue: 80%.

3) Acceptance of a buyout offer: 30%.

4) Price decline due to fundamentals: 60%. ([Helium][Helium][seekingalpha.com])


Trading Oracle: Trade debit spreads targeting VNDA’s medium-term stability. Buy 12/20/2024 7.00 Calls, hedge with 08/16/2024 6.00 Puts. Favor long volatility strategies to leverage implied volatility skew and near-term price catalysts.


July 23, 2024


Vanda Pharmaceuticals Forecast

VNDA      Vanda Pharmaceuticals











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VNDA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.5)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VNDA



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.37)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.5)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VNDA



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.5)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.37)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.13)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)





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